Trade routes, paths, etc.

Raveolution wrote:

vegeta002 wrote:

Sounds like a beautiful sight to see. Much better than my preference of nuking everything in the area (which ain't smart).

Nukes are inelegant. They also may not work against canopy fairies that are phased out. Plus they screw up the environment, etc.

I did say it wasn't smart, I just like nukes.

Like Karbo said two pages ago, discretion is key; it would be more cost-effective to outfit your convoy with stealth generators or transporting the goods in easily manageable quantities on something fast as TheQuantumMechanic suggested, than hiring a massive military escort or whatever. Unless the merchant is ridiculousely rich and isn't afraid throwing away large amounts of cash for pred-fodder.

BTW, I've just noticed the portal positioned between Negav and Drider Forest on the map. Where does that lead to?

most dimensional gates on felarya have more than one destination points

And they change frequently and unexpectedly, from what I understand.

... It's probably the fairies having fun.

TheQuantumMechanic wrote:

... It's probably the fairies having fun.

i believe its more attributed to the general instability of the planet.... and also likely a function of Notys mere presence. though a skilled fairy could probably do so... i don't think the average has much in the way of dimensional magic.

observer88 wrote:

Like Karbo said two pages ago, discretion is key; it would be more cost-effective to outfit your convoy with stealth generators or transporting the goods in easily manageable quantities on something fast as TheQuantumMechanic suggested, than hiring a massive military escort or whatever. Unless the merchant is ridiculousely rich and isn't afraid throwing away large amounts of cash for pred-fodder.

BTW, I've just noticed the portal positioned between Negav and Drider Forest on the map. Where does that lead to?

Great Preds can sense prey, though. Stealth would be very hard to make work in Felarya.

Being able to cancel out magic around a convoy doesn't eliminate the threat of a Pred, but it keeps a lot of preds away.

Reducing the number of preds that can come after you is key to getting more convoys across safely.

Raveolution wrote:

Reducing the number of preds that can come after you is key to getting more convoys across safely.

It's more than difficult that you believe when you don't know the exact numbers of predators in an area and in general a convoy don't have enough firepower to do that. The problem an well-armed convoy will not only draw the attention of the predators but the others humans and in general they have a better equipment

The problem there is if you're focusing on Preds, you're likely going to be using anti-armor weaponry and be improperly equipped to deal with infantry.

Arming all your Caravan Guards with a Panzerfaust sounds great at first, until you realize said weapon is inefficient against the spread out Neko war band that ambushed you. Start arming them with SMG's instead to deal with Bandits? Watch them cause ineffective flesh wounds to most larger Predators.

Now, placing some sort of distortion device or an anti-divination spell on the Caravan is likely to help against Predator intrusion, but that still doesn't rule out blind luck / misfortune.

Raveolution wrote:

Great Preds can sense prey, though. Stealth would be very hard to make work in Felarya.

Not as hard as you think; I am not too fond of the idea of the "Predator Sense" at all, but since it's been stated to exist, there's not much to do other than take it into consideration. However, it can not possibly be an infallible, perfectly accurate 'mental radar' that unerringly directs a predator to prey regardless of how or where they hide. That is just not possible, for a number of reasons.

1) Concealment techniques are one of the most effective mechanisms within the predation cycle, for both predator and prey; Ambush predators rely on such techniques to catch food for themselves, as well as avoid their own predators. Their own predators; meaning that creatures that prey on Giant Nagas and other "Great Preds" also have this "Predator Sense", and if it was completely infallible and accurate, it would be impossible for the average Naga to survive into adulthood, unless raised within a large and well-armed society. A small village just wouldn't cut it.

2) In the natural predation cycle, generalized predators have a success rate of roughly 10%; meaning that nearly 90% of all their hunts end in failure, due to not being able to find prey, prey escaping, etc. That rate is going to be skewed a little bit more towards a predator's favor on Felarya, but not to the point that they're always going to find a human hiding in a clever spot; if that was the case, no Great Pred on Felarya would ever have to actually work for a meal, or worry about going hungry.

In the end, that removes a good deal of the element of danger from the equation for the Naga/Fairy/whatever- why risk traipsing about in the jungle and possibly lose their life, when they can just head straight for the nearest human, gobble him up, and then head straight back to the safety of the settlement? A giant Naga only requires 5 humans a day to survive; if they were capable of detecting them precisely at long range, locating them without fail, and consuming them in a matter of seconds, there would be much less of a danger factor (for them) involved in their hunts.

3) In most stories I've seen in Felarya, the "Pred Sense" is either downplayed, or rarely portrayed as more than a slight edge when it comes to hunting; Katrika certainly doesn't rely only upon it when she is hunting. Also, one of the best reasons for it not to be an omnscient mental radar is that if it were... there would be virtually no accidental face-to-face meetings between predator and prey.

It would be impossible for a predator to round a tree or hill, while a prey does the same, and wind up staring at one another over a distance... before the frantic chase scene begins. It just wouldn't happen, because the Dridder or whatever would always know the Human or Neko was there.

There are still more reasons, but by now, I'm sure you see where I'm going with this. The "Pred Sense" only really works as a vaguely defined concept; once you start going into it in depth, it just falls apart... or absolutely destroys a number of possible scenarios in a way that prevents them from ever occuring on Felarya, barring external mitigating factors.

Raveolution wrote:

Being able to cancel out magic around a convoy doesn't eliminate the threat of a Pred, but it keeps a lot of preds away.

It keeps some of the intelligent ones who are magically inclined or might otherwise even care about magic away. Preds with animalistic intelligence aren't going to care much; and throwing as much anti-magic around as you please is not going to matter one way or the other to Crisis.

Raveolution wrote:

Reducing the number of preds that can come after you is key to getting more convoys across safely.

Incorrect; people can and do make it from Point A to Point B in Felarya 'safely'. It might not happen all the time, but massive firepower is definitely not key to survival in Felarya. Just ask the Delurans.

On Felarya, using more firepower than you need to deter a threat will always be a bad strategy, and will get you killed every time barring dumb luck. The bigger a noise you make, the more attention you are going to draw; and I guarantee you, if you are carrying enough weapons and ammo to fight World War Felarya... you aren't going to have space left over for those supplies and trade goods you were planning to transport. It's just not feasible.

Intelligent Predators aren't dumb animals who only care about filling their stomachs; if a prey puts up a big enough struggle, they are probably going to go and find an easier meal. It's not like prey is scarce on Felarya. In addition, prey that makes a hell of a lot of noise may just draw other predators, or larger predators that might want to eat the Naga or Dridder. In that case, it's best just to move on and find someone who is less likely to draw undue attention from miles around.

So, you burn a whole bunch of ammo either killing or severely injuring and making a predator flee. Before your convoy even gets another mile, you wind up having to fight off another predator. And then another after that. It's a nearly endless chain, except that it can't continue forever because you don't have that much ammunition. Tell me now, how is standing your ground and fighting with guns ablaze the best solution again? While you're stuck in one position for the amount of time it takes to deal with one predator (which could be very quick, or very long, particularly if he or she knows serious defensive magic) you aren't going anywhere, and letting everything in Felarya for miles around know exactly where you are. They don't even need a "Pred Sense", because you're announcing your location at the top of your lungs to everyone within miles.

Overwhelming Force is only really a viable option for a general offensive tactic or mobile defensive tactic if you have an entire army, a supply chain or base nearby, and far more manpower/resources than the opposition. If not, it does not, and can not, work for offensive purposes.

For Static Defense/Area Occupation, though? Defending bases and such? Yeah, it works like a charm.

Also, now that I think about it, another problem with the "Shoot Everything to Hell" defense for a trade convoy...

The purpose of a trade convoy or trade route is to make money. The more guns and ammo you are carrying, the less the amount of supplies and trade goods you will be able to carry without drastically expanding the size of the caravan, which makes it more vulnerable sheerly because there is more of it to protect.

So now, you have a ridiculously huge caravan that requires far more time, effort, and manpower to guard... and your solution is to dump ridiculous amounts of firepower into everything you see that might possibly pose a threat to the caravan's safety. But hey, you made it to the city, and now your traders can sell their goods to the merchants.

The only problem is, the value of all that ammo you expended is five to ten times the amount you receive for your trade goods, meaning that you lose money every time you try to make a trade run unless you encounter few to no predators along the way. And given the fact that if you see one, you're going to make a huge racket that draws the attention of others, that is so unlikely as to be nearly impossible.

Seriously, small distributed shipments, fast light couriers. Best way to go.

About the predators special sense even if it's a very dangerous ability. I think it can be fooled after all the illusion exists to deceive the senses. Even in nature preys developp tactics to fool their preadtors

A device or spell that creates a fake psychic signature/presence/etc. comes to mind. The way preds' 6th sense works is still a bit ambiguous though. But that's another story.

observer88 wrote:

A device or spell that creates a fake psychic signature/presence/etc. comes to mind. The way preds' 6th sense works is still a bit ambiguous though. But that's another story.

For a convoy, slather the bad boys in anti-magic, put guns and surface-to-air weapons on the vehicles, and here's another one... send out human-looking flesh/clay golems that explode. Preferably cheaply-made golems (if possible), who walk the perimeter and explore in the bushes. If it goes in the mouth, it goes kaboom plus it sprays napalm.

Do golems trip that 6th sense? If so they make excellent decoys.

I can't help but wonder why some people choose to express their affection for Felarya, by devising ways to blow it up.

Anyway, from a storytelling perspective, the idea of secret trade routs and hidden safe-houses is quite intriguing. Not to mention all the cloak-and-dagger, backstabbing, double-crossing fun that Quantum Mechanic mentioned. Lots of really neat potential there.

Cypress wrote:

TheQuantumMechanic wrote:

... It's probably the fairies having fun.

i believe its more attributed to the general instability of the planet.... and also likely a function of Notys mere presence. though a skilled fairy could probably do so... i don't think the average has much in the way of dimensional magic.

I don't care what it is, since either way I'm screwed, considering I would stumble into those things fairly often.

PrinnyDood wrote:

I can't help but wonder why some people choose to express their affection for Felarya, by devising ways to blow it up.

Who wants to blow up Felarya?

Survival in Felarya is a huge and deadly puzzle, especially for humans. This represents a challenge. A challenge in an environment as fun as Felarya will attract players.

It's all about eat or be eaten here.

I guarantee you if Felarya were a fully fleshed out game, it would grow slowly at first, and then a year later you'd have gunfights breaking out at Wal Marts over the last copy in stock. All so people could figure out sure-fire ways to play eat or be eaten.

Raveolution wrote:

Who wants to blow up Felarya?

Survival in Felarya is a huge and deadly puzzle, especially for humans. This represents a challenge. A challenge in an environment as fun as Felarya will attract players.

It's all about eat or be eaten here.

I guarantee you if Felarya were a fully fleshed out game, it would grow slowly at first, and then a year later you'd have gunfights breaking out at Wal Marts over the last copy in stock. All so people could figure out sure-fire ways to play eat or be eaten.

Heh, sorry for the snark, I have a bad habit of that sometimes. I was mostly responding to the fact that your suggestions seemed very much 'out of sync' with the spirit of this fantasy world. I just can't picture an unstoppable railgun convoy trundling along through Felarya, except perhaps in some hilarious bizzaro universe.

However, I now see that it's more like a mental game of 'given unlimited technology and resources, could I kill every predator that got in my way?' for you, rather than a serious suggestion for the world. Which is cool by me, though I still don't see the appeal in trying to devise a sure-fire way to survive in Felarya, especially using brute-force firepower. It kinda runs against the grain of the whole idea behind the world, in my mind.

But to each their own, and it's not like it's hurting anything, so who am I to complain?

Anyway, I apologize for running this tread further off topic. Please, continue with the trade route discussion people, I'll trouble you no more.

PrinnyDood wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

Who wants to blow up Felarya?

Survival in Felarya is a huge and deadly puzzle, especially for humans. This represents a challenge. A challenge in an environment as fun as Felarya will attract players.

It's all about eat or be eaten here.

I guarantee you if Felarya were a fully fleshed out game, it would grow slowly at first, and then a year later you'd have gunfights breaking out at Wal Marts over the last copy in stock. All so people could figure out sure-fire ways to play eat or be eaten.

Heh, sorry for the snark, I have a bad habit of that sometimes. I was mostly responding to the fact that your suggestions seemed very much 'out of sync' with the spirit of this fantasy world. I just can't picture an unstoppable railgun convoy trundling along through Felarya, except perhaps in some hilarious bizzaro universe.

However, I now see that it's more like a mental game of 'given unlimited technology and resources, could I kill every predator that got in my way?' for you, rather than a serious suggestion for the world. Which is cool by me, though I still don't see the appeal in trying to devise a sure-fire way to survive in Felarya, especially using brute-force firepower. It kinda runs against the grain of the whole idea behind the world, in my mind.

But to each their own, and it's not like it's hurting anything, so who am I to complain?

Anyway, I apologize for running this tread further off topic. Please, continue with the trade route discussion people, I'll trouble you no more.

Well, in the spirit of this fantasy universe, you have to think about the goals of people crossing Felarya. People like to cross land in safety no matter what universe it is. As dangerous as Felarya is, you're likely to have some epic conflicts. Commercial interests will demand the pacification of those Preds. They'll absolutely demand it, that's just being logical. Families of people devoured will pay well for some payback. The fairies and nagas alone are likely to bring all the humans together to clear trade routes of threats. Of course the humans will go right back to being fragmented afterwards and the Preds will just keep coming back. I'm not sure where this falls under "blow Felarya up" but it's just how humans are: we like pacifying predators and making the world safe for human expansion.

Frankly I think the Guardians would be working overtime to keep them under control.

Raveolution wrote:

Well, in the spirit of this fantasy universe, you have to think about the goals of people crossing Felarya. People like to cross land in safety no matter what universe it is. As dangerous as Felarya is, you're likely to have some epic conflicts.

It's something everyone wish but unfortunately it's not always the case because the trade routes always draw the attention of bandits and thieves... No matter the universe you travel you will always face problem when you are a merchant.

Raveolution wrote:

Commercial interests will demand the pacification of those Preds. They'll absolutely demand it, that's just being logical.

That's why there is the mercenaries or company who offer there protection, and the fact the danger can be a good reason to the merchant to increase the prices. It's a good advantage for the merchant and the people who sells their protection

The pacification of the Preds require a pacification of the entire world of Felarya.

Raveolution wrote:

Families of people devoured will pay well for some payback.

Only if the family is wealthy. It's a simple employees there is few chance, for this kind of job it's always people who have serious need of money who do this kind of jobs.

Raveolution wrote:

The fairies and nagas alone are likely to bring all the humans together to clear trade routes of threats.

It will be depend on the place and the route, near human settlement like Negav yes but next to Giant Tree, the fairy kingdom

And nagas and fairies are not the only predators on Felarya, there are the other hybrids predators but the faunas too.

Raveolution wrote:

Of course the humans will go right back to being fragmented afterwards and the Preds will just keep coming back. I'm not sure where this falls under "blow Felarya up" but it's just how humans are: we like pacifying predators and making the world safe for human expansion.

1)This logic will draw the attention of the guardians,it's a threat for the balance the other races.
2)sorry for you main threat are not the predators but the humans who want to steal the goods.

Raveolution wrote:

Frankly I think the Guardians would be working overtime to keep them under control.

The guardians are no reason to interfere except it's a threat for the balance of Felarya. It's something the humans have to deal by themselves without threating the balance of the world.

To conclude: You focus on the predators and neglect the threat of the humans, the predators can be considered as dangers of the environment but the threat of the humans are more important because they are more unpredictable and sometime well-armed.

Raveolution wrote:

Commercial interests will demand the pacification of those Preds. They'll absolutely demand it, that's just being logical.

I agree. In fact, humans in general would demand it. In a totally logical, realistic (given the different physics of the world, of course) Felarya, I'm pretty sure it would very rapidly degenerate into a vicious cycle. One of humans developing enough tech/magic to explode pretty much anything smaller than a moon, and conquering the world, followed by them being smacked back into the stone-age by the Guardians. Rinse and repeat. Assuming of course, that humans, given access to both magic and technology, couldn't come up with some way to stop even the Guardians. Which is an assumption I'm not quite willing to make. We humans are unremittingly badass when it comes to eliminating perceived threats to our species.

Unfortunately, the version of Felarya I've just described is not nearly as interesting or fun as the the one presented by Karbo. So I simply choose to ignore the most logical line of reasoning, to better hold true to the spirit of the world. Suspension of disbelief and all that.

Raveolution wrote:

I'm not sure where this falls under "blow Felarya up"

As I said, I was being snarky, and for that, I apologize.

Alright, this time I really, really, will stop running this tread off topic. Sorry folks!

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

Well, in the spirit of this fantasy universe, you have to think about the goals of people crossing Felarya. People like to cross land in safety no matter what universe it is. As dangerous as Felarya is, you're likely to have some epic conflicts.

It's something everyone wish but unfortunately it's not always the case because the trade routes always draw the attention of bandits and thieves... No matter the universe you travel you will always face problem when you are a merchant.

Bandits are ALWAYS a problem in any universe with commerce. But logically speaking, it's a matter of who will rob you, and who will almost always kill you... horribly. Let's assume bandits will kill everyone they rob. Okay. How would the average human rather die? Being shot by a gun or being digested alive?

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

Commercial interests will demand the pacification of those Preds. They'll absolutely demand it, that's just being logical.

That's why there is the mercenaries or company who offer there protection, and the fact the danger can be a good reason to the merchant to increase the prices. It's a good advantage for the merchant and the people who sells their protection

The pacification of the Preds require a pacification of the entire world of Felarya.

And I'm not saying total pacification of Preds is a wise move, or even possible, especially with the Guardians around. But pacification is the logical end goal of merchants - see below.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

Families of people devoured will pay well for some payback.

Only if the family is wealthy. It's a simple employees there is few chance, for this kind of job it's always people who have serious need of money who do this kind of jobs.

There'll be people who do those jobs but not nearly as many.

There are people with qualifying skills to move goods but who will not go to Iraq, even though they're out of work now. Being killed, much less kidnapped and tortured and killed, is what primarily stops them. Now you take those who go to Iraq to move goods across the deadly desert there, and you show them footage of people encountering the Great Preds in Felarya. How many of those people who move goods across Iraq do you think will want to move goods across Felarya?

Not many.

Fear of dying while screaming for help while terrorists are sawing your head off, still doesn't come anywhere close to the fear of dying being dissolved in stomach acids.

That being said, merchants are going to find it very hard to find workers, no matter how desperate they are. And if the average Contractor in Iraq were to hear accounts from survivors of giant pred bellies growling while people are screaming and dying inside... well let's just say Post Traumatic Stress will put a great number of those survivors out of the game for one, and will leave only a fraction of Iraq Contractors willing to haul goods across Felarya.

Bandits they can deal with. Great Preds they cannot so easily deal with. And those who can deal with it, will suffer a serious attrition rate.

My point is, these workers command a premium salary because of the demand for their services.

And there's a worse problem than this, stemming from competing merchants; see below.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

The fairies and nagas alone are likely to bring all the humans together to clear trade routes of threats.

It will be depend on the place and the route, near human settlement like Negav yes but next to Giant Tree, the fairy kingdom

And nagas and fairies are not the only predators on Felarya, there are the other hybrids predators but the faunas too.

That's why I said nagas and fairies alone - that means that they're bad enough, without all the other superpreds that exist on Felarya.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

Of course the humans will go right back to being fragmented afterwards and the Preds will just keep coming back. I'm not sure where this falls under "blow Felarya up" but it's just how humans are: we like pacifying predators and making the world safe for human expansion.

1)This logic will draw the attention of the guardians,it's a threat for the balance the other races.
2)sorry for you main threat are not the predators but the humans who want to steal the goods.

1) That is for sure, but unfortunately it is very hard, given the issue of commerce, for this not to happen. Merchants need workers to survive and Great Preds prevent that, without major human intervention. And merchants who may not care about their workers, do care about losing their whole cargo strewn across a patch of forest, unable to be recovered because of a hungry Great Pred lurking in the area.

Merchants can charge a premium for moving stuff across Felarya, but other Merchants will want to undercut them either by reduced price or by reduced cargo loss, and steal their business. Hiring mercs to handle the Preds will mean more profits for them in the future, and less lost cargo, and fewer employee deaths or turnover. Less lost cargo means more trust by customers. The best workers will cram the halls trying to get a job at the company where they are more likely to survive. Also, more ominously, customers will pay a premium price just so they don't have to keep losing their goods (a double ding, considering the merchants charge them for each delivery attempt). So a merchant who clears out the Great Preds off their trade path, not only gets more market share, they also get customer loyalty. AND they might be able to lower prices to obliterate their competition, or raise prices to keep a fat profit. As long as the prices don't equal the cost of sending another full caravan of goods across the wilderness.

Soon the only surviving merchants left will be the ones with Pred-free routes, and thus the survivors will pay through the nose to clear out Preds just because otherwise they can't even stay in business against a Merchant that guarantees the delivery of their goods.

The risk of some Pred species going extinct is implied by this progression of events - and, thus, the intervention of a Guardian, as extinction implies upsetting the balance.

About bandits... bandits can be bought off. They can even be hired as mercs. Bandits can also be hunted down, look at how the pirates on Earth's oceans get hunted down. The legacy of the war against bandits is evident in how easily you can ship goods across the ocean nowadays. The bandit problem will be solved, although it will linger a lot longer than the Great Preds (without Guardian intervention).

Now if a Merchant could hire someone capable of telling someone like Ciele or Kiki to bug some other merchant's routes for some protection currency (food, money, whatever she wants), that would make some Preds and merchants allies. That would change things dramatically. But when has a giant fairy ever done that regularly?

2) Who are you statistically more likely to walk away alive from, in the event of an ambush: a bandit, or Vivian? A merchant can pay bandits protection money and have most of their goods arrive intact, perhaps even hire the bandits as mercs. What are your chances of your caravan surviving a run-in with Crisis when she's hungry? The main threat is the predator you can't ever (or almost ever) negotiate with and who will kill you heinously.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Raveolution wrote:

Frankly I think the Guardians would be working overtime to keep them under control.

The guardians are no reason to interfere except it's a threat for the balance of Felarya. It's something the humans have to deal by themselves without threating the balance of the world.

To conclude: You focus on the predators and neglect the threat of the humans, the predators can be considered as dangers of the environment but the threat of the humans are more important because they are more unpredictable and sometime well-armed.

I neglected to talk about the bandits, but they can be dealt with. They have been dealt with, for the most part, in reality, and as such they can also be reduced to an equally miniscule threat in Felarya. I'd never say bandits can be eliminated - they can't. But they can be mitigated. So can Great Preds. The problem is, Great Preds would piss off too many loved ones, and ruin too many merchants' profits. Merchants would compete to pacify great preds and bandits alike, and Great Preds will never stop short of death, so there ya go.

Then some rich crazy merchant will develop a vendetta for Preds and go further than just clearing them off his routes, and my advice is, if you see this happening, pack your stuff immediately and go hang out with the Delurans for a year. That merchant's about to get a visit from a Guardian. Or two.

Oh and I do admit to having a profound lack of faith in "secret" trade routes out of a Giant Pred's path.

And to Prinnydood, you're right - and the Guardians are definitely a form of insurance to preserve Karbo's universe. I could imagine that cycle happening for sure.

Raveolution wrote:

There'll be people who do those jobs but not nearly as many.

There are people with qualifying skills to move goods but who will not go to Iraq, even though they're out of work now. Being killed, much less kidnapped and tortured and killed, is what primarily stops them. Now you take those who go to Iraq to move goods across the deadly desert there, and you show them footage of people encountering the Great Preds in Felarya. How many of those people who move goods across Iraq do you think will want to move goods across Felarya?

Not many.

Iraq and Felarya are two different things. In Felarya you don't meet the same difficulties in Iraq.

Raveolution wrote:

Fear of dying while screaming for help while terrorists are sawing your head off, still doesn't come anywhere close to the fear of dying being dissolved in stomach acids.

This two cases are completely different one is a gratuitous violence act and the second is a necessity. The Predators don't have the same goal of a terrorist it's two different threat. You should avoid to do an amalgam or compare them.

Raveolution wrote:

That being said, merchants are going to find it very hard to find workers, no matter how desperate they are. And if the average Contractor in Iraq were to hear accounts from survivors of giant pred bellies growling while people are screaming and dying inside... well let's just say Post Traumatic Stress will put a great number of those survivors out of the game for one, and will leave only a fraction of Iraq Contractors willing to haul goods across Felarya.

Felarya is not Iraq, it's two completely different things

Raveolution wrote:

Bandits they can deal with. Great Preds they cannot so easily deal with. And those who can deal with it, will suffer a serious attrition rate.

My point is, these workers command a premium salary because of the demand for their services.

And there's a worse problem than this, stemming from competing merchants; see below.

1) That is for sure, but unfortunately it is very hard, given the issue of commerce, for this not to happen. Merchants need workers to survive and Great Preds prevent that, without major human intervention. And merchants who may not care about their workers, do care about losing their whole cargo strewn across a patch of forest, unable to be recovered because of a hungry Great Pred lurking in the area.

Merchants can charge a premium for moving stuff across Felarya, but other Merchants will want to undercut them either by reduced price or by reduced cargo loss, and steal their business. Hiring mercs to handle the Preds will mean more profits for them in the future, and less lost cargo, and fewer employee deaths or turnover. Less lost cargo means more trust by customers. The best workers will cram the halls trying to get a job at the company where they are more likely to survive. Also, more ominously, customers will pay a premium price just so they don't have to keep losing their goods (a double ding, considering the merchants charge them for each delivery attempt). So a merchant who clears out the Great Preds off their trade path, not only gets more market share, they also get customer loyalty. AND they might be able to lower prices to obliterate their competition, or raise prices to keep a fat profit. As long as the prices don't equal the cost of sending another full caravan of goods across the wilderness.

Soon the only surviving merchants left will be the ones with Pred-free routes, and thus the survivors will pay through the nose to clear out Preds just because otherwise they can't even stay in business against a Merchant that guarantees the delivery of their goods.

The risk of some Pred species going extinct is implied by this progression of events - and, thus, the intervention of a Guardian, as extinction implies upsetting the balance.

Don't worry about the merchants will always find a way to do business, they adapt perfectly to the difficulties. If a merchants wants to do business they will do business no matter what it costs, the best example is Gunther, this guy alone is able to do business in Felarya so I think it's not alone.

And many lost goods can be found in the black market or sell in the normal markets why because there are people who find them and sell them for their own profit. :p

Raveolution wrote:

About bandits... bandits can be bought off. They can even be hired as mercs. Bandits can also be hunted down, look at how the pirates on Earth's oceans get hunted down. The legacy of the war against bandits is evident in how easily you can ship goods across the ocean nowadays. The bandit problem will be solved, although it will linger a lot longer than the Great Preds (without Guardian intervention).

The pirates are still active on Earth, it's just they change their method but they are still active. There are still boats which are attacked by Pirates, it's true there are no case of piracy in the Caribbean but they are still effective in Asia and Africa. And let me remember you pirates attack the plane too.

Raveolution wrote:

Now if a Merchant could hire someone capable of telling someone like Ciele or Kiki to bug some other merchant's routes for some protection currency (food, money, whatever she wants), that would make some Preds and merchants allies. That would change things dramatically. But when has a giant fairy ever done that regularly?

It's a possibility which can be denied, if they are still merchants in Felarya maybe some find a way to deal with the Predators like that.

Raveolution wrote:

2) Who are you statistically more likely to walk away alive from, in the event of an ambush: a bandit, or Vivian? A merchant can pay bandits protection money and have most of their goods arrive intact, perhaps even hire the bandits as mercs. What are your chances of your caravan surviving a run-in with Crisis when she's hungry? The main threat is the predator you can't ever (or almost ever) negotiate with and who will kill you heinously.

The bandits can kill the merchant, steal the money and sells the goods on the black market or on the markets.

And for the case you quote the predator are dangerous only when they are hungry, the bandits it's anytime.

Statistically no matter the world the deadliest creature for the humans will always be the humans themselves.

Raveolution wrote:

I neglected to talk about the bandits, but they can be dealt with. They have been dealt with, for the most part, in reality, and as such they can also be reduced to an equally miniscule threat in Felarya. I'd never say bandits can be eliminated - they can't. But they can be mitigated. So can Great Preds. The problem is, Great Preds would piss off too many loved ones, and ruin too many merchants' profits. Merchants would compete to pacify great preds and bandits alike, and Great Preds will never stop short of death, so there ya go.

I'm sorry for you but you can not be reduced to an equally minuscule threat even in Felarya, because untamed and wild place offer many advantages of the bandits because when a convoy is attacked there are few chance it receive helps from outside.

Raveolution wrote:

Then some rich crazy merchant will develop a vendetta for Preds and go further than just clearing them off his routes, and my advice is, if you see this happening, pack your stuff immediately and go hang out with the Delurans for a year. That merchant's about to get a visit from a Guardian. Or two.

If the merchant do a business by selling predators' skins, yes. A merchant always research a profit in his actions nothing is free there is always something behind, and a merchant prefer to avoid problems to create them, it can be harmful for the business.

Raveolution wrote:

Oh and I do admit to having a profound lack of faith in "secret" trade routes out of a Giant Pred's path.

The merchants are people who like keeping secrets for themselves to share them so if a merchant find a secret path do you think it will share it.

It's because you are more interested by a war between the predators and the humans and you tend to dramatize the situation too much. You should relax and take a step back

Nitpick: Predators are not only dangerous when hungry. There are many specifically stated to eat others when full just to enjoy the squirming.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Iraq and Felarya are two different things. In Felarya you don't meet the same difficulties in Iraq.

Like Mahalite said, there are many preds who eat even when full. Would that not be gratuitous? As for the difference in goals, the most important comparison is what they want you to be when they're done. Both terrorists and Great Preds want you dead. I'm not sure what differences exist that nullify that. I do know said differences are not important when you're dead.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

Don't worry about the merchants will always find a way to do business, they adapt perfectly to the difficulties. If a merchants wants to do business they will do business no matter what it costs, the best example is Gunther, this guy alone is able to do business in Felarya so I think it's not alone.

Sure, they'll adapt, but do you really think most will not at least want or try to get the Preds and bandits alike off their routes forever? Come on, srsly, we're talking human nature here. They're gonna try and try hard.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

The pirates are still active on Earth, it's just they change their method but they are still active. There are still boats which are attacked by Pirates, it's true there are no case of piracy in the Caribbean but they are still effective in Asia and Africa. And let me remember you pirates attack the plane too.

Yes, but most freight makes it around the world safely. Not gonna be the case in Felarya.

Can you tell me of an item you ordered from overseas that got intercepted by pirates?

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

It's a possibility which can be denied, if they are still merchants in Felarya maybe some find a way to deal with the Predators like that.

Oh they'll find a way. That's the problem.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

The bandits can kill the merchant, steal the money and sells the goods on the black market or on the markets.

Can, yes. Can, being the effective word. But you can't say bandits always will kill. Stagecoaches got robbed and people didn't always get killed. Do you really believe all bandits kill when they rob? Now if a Great Pred goes out of their way and actually intercepts your convoy, what are your odds that they aren't coming to kill (eat) you?

If you can honestly say that all bandits always kill those that they rob or Felaryan Preds don't intercept convoys to eat people, I'll shut up right now.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

I'm sorry for you but you can not be reduced to an equally minuscule threat even in Felarya, because untamed and wild place offer many advantages of the bandits because when a convoy is attacked there are few chance it receive helps from outside.

You give bandits more power than they really have. They can be hit by Predators if they're lurking out there. Mercs can hunt them down.

gwadahunter2222 wrote:

It's because you are more interested by a war between the predators and the humans and you tend to dramatize the situation too much. You should relax and take a step back

Perhaps. But I'm also explaining how human beings will react, realistically. This was a thread that started discussing defending trade routes. If we want to stay superficial about it then I will do so. Heck, there's quite a few whole realms I'd like to see the Preds have fun chowing down on. But realistically speaking, it isn't about me being interested in a war, although I am very interested in how humans can make Felarya safer for them. It's all about cause and effect and human nature.

Raveolution wrote:

Like Mahalite said, there are many preds who eat even when full. Would that not be gratuitous? As for the difference in goals, the most important comparison is what they want you to be when they're done. Both terrorists and Great Preds want you dead. I'm not sure what differences exist that nullify that. I do know said differences are not important when you're dead.

It's not an Isolon eye which will stop a terrorist to attack Negav.

It's not you who start with telling dying eating by a predators is worst than dying killing a terrorist.

Raveolution wrote:

Sure, they'll adapt, but do you really think most will not at least want or try to get the Preds and bandits alike off their routes forever? Come on, srsly, we're talking human nature here. They're gonna try and try hard.

Yeah, yeah but the problem the criminals are human too so what you say applies to them.

The criminalities is born from the different inequality between the humans no matter the place, the society you develop since the moment there will be inequalities they will be criminals.

Raveolution wrote:

Yes, but most freight makes it around the world safely. Not gonna be the case in Felarya.

Can you tell me of an item you ordered from overseas that got intercepted by pirates?

Because there are the planes and the trade route between America and Europe is not as vast as and as long as the trade route between Europe and Asia.

But as I said piracy are effective in Asia and Africa because it's a vast route, there are many boats which pass by this way it's very difficult to protect them all because it difficult to cover all the area.

Raveolution wrote:

Oh they'll find a way. That's the problem.

They find a way to their business in Felarya even the threat of the Predators, their convoy always arrive to their destination and they didn't have to kill all the predators on their path. It's true it's a problem.

Raveolution wrote:

Can, yes. Can, being the effective word. But you can't say bandits always will kill. Stagecoaches got robbed and people didn't always get killed. Do you really believe all bandits kill when they rob? Now if a Great Pred goes out of their way and actually intercepts your convoy, what are your odds that they aren't coming to kill (eat) you?

If you can honestly say that all bandits always kill those that they rob or Felaryan Preds don't intercept convoys to eat people, I'll shut up right now.

The risk to be attacked it's something which can not be denied a merchants in Felarya should take in consideration it can be attacked by both predators and bandits, because he has to defend BOTH his life and his freight.

The difference between the preds and the bandits, the predators is aiming you and the bandits your goods. Except in some case the predators are not interested by the goods so they can be recover but in the case of the bandits your goods are lost forever and in this case the consequence are more important. The consequence did by the predators on the commerce are unintentional contrary to the bandits who willingly attack you to steal your goods.

For the predators it's protect your life for the bandits it's protect your life and your goods

If you are attacked by bandits in vast and dangerous place like jungle, the desert or the deep seas where there are no police or army to assure the protection. You have strong chance to be killed or captured, there are few chance they spare your life, they tend to make disappear the proof of their act

Raveolution wrote:

You give bandits more power than they really have. They can be hit by Predators if they're lurking out there. Mercs can hunt them down.

The bandits spend most of their time on Felarya, so they know better the danger of the are and how to deal with it. So I think they learn how to avoid the predators.

The bandits are well-organized, they can use the same technology and magic use the merchants and they know the jungle as good as the predators. It's a deadly combinations isn't it

Even if you send mercenaries to kill are you sure they will find them and kill them, it's difficult to find someone in a vast area where there are an infinities of hiding place.

Raveolution wrote:

Perhaps. But I'm also explaining how human beings will react, realistically. This was a thread that started discussing defending trade routes. If we want to stay superficial about it then I will do so. Heck, there's quite a few whole realms I'd like to see the Preds have fun chowing down on. But realistically speaking, it isn't about me being interested in a war, although I am very interested in how humans can make Felarya safer for them. It's all about cause and effect and human nature.

The problem you can not maintain a strong defense anytime and anywhere in a vast area like Felarya.

The goal when you are merchant is to protect the goods and to assure it arrives to its destination. So you need to be stealthier than normal and to avoid to attract the attention of both the predator of both the bandits. Because it will be more difficult to defend yourself against both the attacks and predators and the bandits.

When you convey something or escort someone it's logic to avoid the conflict or to not draw the attention on you, since the moment you are attacked no matter it's a predators or bandits since the moments you have no external help consider you as dead. Because you don't have the advantages on the numbers and you don't know in advance how and who will attacked you.

I will defend the idea of the secret path:
1) The access is restricted due to the fact there are few people who knows this path only the merchant and their bodyguards knows it, it's reduce the chance to be attacked because you meet few peoples.

2) Setting some checkpoints on the path, allow the merchants to rest in safe place. So no risk to be attacked the night, and you can fill up your supplies and repairs your gears. It's easier to secure the path because you have only to focus on the protection of the convoy and you can have an external help.